Article

Population modelling-forecasting. Objectives:To estimate the global
incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI).Setting:An initiative of the
International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Prevention Committee. Methods: Regression
techniques were used to derive regional and global estimates of TSCI incidence.
Using the findings of 31 published studies, a regression model was fitted using a
known number of TSCI cases as the dependent variable and the population at risk
as the single independent variable. In the process of deriving TSCI incidence, an
alternative TSCI model was specified in an attempt to arrive at an optimal way of
estimating the global incidence of TSCI.Results:The global incidence of TSCI was
estimated to be 23 cases per 1 000 000 persons in 2007 (179 312 cases per annum).
World Health Organization's regional results are
provided.Discussion:Understanding the incidence of TSCI is important for health
service planning and for the determination of injury prevention priorities. In
the absence of high-quality epidemiological studies of TSCI in each country, the
estimation of TSCI obtained through population modelling can be used to overcome
known deficits in global spinal cord injury (SCI) data. The incidence of TSCI is
context specific, and an alternative regression model demonstrated how TSCI
incidence estimates could be improved with additional data. The results highlight
the need for data standardisation and comprehensive reporting of national level
TSCI data. A step-wise approach from the collation of conventional
epidemiological data through to population modelling is suggested.

Langue : ANGLAIS